Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

83 0x8306…69ec other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL +$1,363 (+11%) realized +$1,388 · open −$25

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%3W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,375per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$1,420now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-0.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+9.6%	-0.9%	38%	38%	-35.4%
≤30d	8	+9.6%	-0.9%	38%	38%	-35.4%
≤90d	8	+9.6%	-0.9%	38%	38%	-35.4%
all	8	+9.6%	-0.9%	38%	38%	-35.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-0.9%	38%	-35.4%
10%	-10.4%	38%	-41.5%
15%	-19.0%	38%	-47.2%
20%	-27.0%	38%	-52.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 66% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +10% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,446 vs −$1,482 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.59 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$1,420

Realized+$1,388

Unrealized−$25

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses3 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage4d

Avg bet$1,375

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$1,445	$1,420	−$25 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$3,209	−$3,152	-98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$1,925	+$2,855	+148%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$1,157	+$808	+70%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$425	−$416	-98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$196	+$674	+344%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$492	−$420	-85%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$3,404	−$3,327	-98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 25	$95	−$93	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	29¢	$7	36m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	29¢	$1,469	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	38¢	$1,476	3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	42¢	$1,733	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	98¢	$4,781	5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	28¢	$424	7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	31¢	$539	7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$963	8h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	59¢	$177	36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$980	43h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	28¢	$425	46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	100¢	$870	47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	4¢	$72	47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	22¢	$196	2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	26¢	$492	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	23¢	$3,404	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	30¢	$95	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,419.66 · official $1,420.15 (match) · 18 history records