Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x8304…a806
other · 40 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage455d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 1 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $43 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $34 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $48 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $11 $0 -1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 12 $12 $0 -2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 11 $12 $0 -2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Warriors be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? May 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Lab May 05 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Newfoundland and Labrador Apr 26 $9 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? Apr 24 $19 $0 +2%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on March 31? Mar 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 15 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% −$3
other 25% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $43 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $40 12h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $40 16h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $6 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $38 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $44 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $32 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $34 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $6 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $40 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $46 3d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $40 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $2 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $31 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $23 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $13 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $28 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $42 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $46 7d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 94¢ $0 177d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 331d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 9 -0.6% -10.1% 22% 0% -10.1%
all 39 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.08 · official $42.08 (match) · 111 history records