Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:21:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8304…671c crypto 640 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,537 (+18%) realized +$3,547 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%377W / 625L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$567
sports 1% +$79
other 1% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+62.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 377 +203.5% +174.6% 20% 19% -75.4%
≤30d 380 +201.8% +173.1% 20% 19% -68.2%
≤90d 1002 +79.9% +62.7% 38% 36% -18.6%
all 1002 +79.9% +62.7% 38% 36% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +62.7% 36% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here +47.2% 33% -26.4%
15% +33.0% 28% -33.5%
20% +19.9% 22% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +154% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$13 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,547
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses377 / 625
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1002 / 640
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1002 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Saudi Arabia 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 21 $0 +$16 +24468%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$46 +8450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$3 +1778%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$10 +808%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$9 -575%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$7 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$9 +1280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $0 +$5 +51732%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $7 −$3 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $0 +$6 +3643%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$52 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$21 +17422%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$11 +15001%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$1 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 21 $0 +$18 +13888%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $3 22m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 15¢ $4 23m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 6¢ $2 28m
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 6¢ $2 28m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 96¢ $96 39m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 69¢ $70 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 14¢ $14 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 67¢ $34 4h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $34 5h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $59 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 12h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 36¢ $22 31h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $44 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $64 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $14 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $12 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $24 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 3500 history records