Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
83 0x8304…2611 crypto 455 markets active 2h ago coverage 751d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate49%218W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$46
other 11% −$4
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$2
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.2% -9.3% 28% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 72 -0.0% -9.5% 36% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 159 -1.0% -10.4% 37% 6% -9.6%
all 447 -2.6% -11.9% 49% 14% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 14% -10.0%
10% -20.3% 7% -18.6%
15% -28.0% 4% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

751d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses218 / 229
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)447 / 455
History coverage751d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 447 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? Yes 100¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
China coup attempt before 2027? No 97¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $150 in June? Jun 27 $130 $0 -0%
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 26 $1 $0 +7%
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? Jun 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $100 $0 -0%
Will Qinwen Zheng be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $1 $0 -0%
Will Senegal finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S Jun 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 $0 -1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 24 $100 $0 -0%
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta Jun 24 $1 $0 +2%
Will Naomi Osaka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $1 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 23 $300 $0 -0%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +7%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +2%
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $3 $0 +5%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
GTA VI released before November 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 17 $1 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
Kylie Jenner confirmed pregnant in 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -16%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
SBF released from custody in 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? Jun 17 $2 $0 -0%
Paris Hilton pregnant in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 12 $129 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 -3%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 10 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +29%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
China coup attempt before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $1 32h
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 32h
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $2 32h
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $2 32h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 32h
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 99¢ $1 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $1 32h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $2 32h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $20 32h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 37h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $0 2d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $2 3d
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag BUY Yes 93¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Qinwen Zheng be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 99¢ $1 3d
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S SELL No 93¢ $1 3d
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $2 3d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 4d
Will Senegal finish last in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY No 93¢ $1 4d
Will Ivory Coast finish last in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Ghana finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY No 98¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.42 · official $109.42 (match) · 1111 history records