Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:44:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

83
0x8303…74d4
crypto · 69 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$61 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$61 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses41 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage19d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 1 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$23
14 days−$67
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? Up 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $66 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $46 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $61 −$9 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $16 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 08 $61 +$22 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 01 $61 −$46 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 01 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 01 $135 −$28 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 31 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 31 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 31 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 31 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 30 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$42 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 25 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 25 $55 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 25 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 25 $26 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$56
other 5% −$47
sports 3% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $20 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $19 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -11.0% -19.5% 63% 37% -12.2%
≤30d 68 -3.6% -12.8% 60% 37% -12.7%
≤90d 68 -3.6% -12.8% 60% 37% -12.7%
all 68 -3.6% -12.8% 60% 37% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 37% -12.7%
10% -21.1% 25% -21.1%
15% -28.8% 15% -28.7%
20% -35.7% 9% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.91 · official $9.91 (match) · 211 history records