Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82ff…cec0 crypto 534 markets active 3d ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$203 (+3%) realized +$203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate85%455W / 79L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$22
14 days+$93
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$168
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +2.5% -7.2% 93% 23% -7.0%
≤30d 454 +1.0% -8.6% 90% 26% -7.4%
≤90d 534 -0.8% -10.3% 85% 24% -7.1%
all 534 -0.8% -10.3% 85% 24% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 24% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 15% -16.0%
15% -26.7% 8% -24.1%
20% -33.9% 5% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses455 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)534 / 534
History coverage40d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 534 Trades
no open positions (54 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $8 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1278 history records