Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82fb…bed6 other 405 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$341 (-5%) realized −$341 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%1W / 404L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day35.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$105
14 days−$169
30 days−$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$319
politics 15% −$55
world 9% −$26
sports 7% −$19
tech 6% −$33
crypto 1% −$3
finance 1% $0
economics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 -5.5% -14.5% 1% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 330 -7.9% -16.7% 0% 0% -15.1%
≤90d 405 -7.9% -16.7% 0% 0% -15.1%
all 405 -7.9% -16.7% 0% 0% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 0% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 0% -23.2%
15% -31.9% 0% -30.6%
20% -38.6% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$341
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses1 / 404
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)405 / 405
History coverage44d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day35.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 405 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat? Jun 24 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary e Jun 24 $8 $0 -4%
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $12 −$3 -25%
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 24 $80 −$2 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? Jun 24 $12 −$1 -6%
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? Jun 24 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat? Jun 24 $9 $0 -2%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? Jun 24 $5 $0 -3%
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Jun 24 $7 $0 -5%
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e Jun 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-17 House seat? Jun 24 $17 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat? Jun 24 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Republican Party win the WA-08 House seat? Jun 24 $1 $0 -5%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Luke Bronin be the Democratic nominee for CT-01? Jun 24 $7 $0 -3%
Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? Jun 24 $4 $0 -9%
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? Jun 24 $6 $0 -3%
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19? Jun 24 $2 $0 -19%
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and He Jun 24 $24 −$1 -4%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 24 $95 −$4 -4%
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-06 House seat? Jun 24 $1 $0 -10%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? Jun 24 $8 $0 -3%
Will the Republican Party win the MN-06 House seat? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 24 $25 $0 -2%
Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat? Jun 24 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-15 House seat? Jun 24 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-24 House seat? Jun 24 $16 −$2 -13%
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-08 House seat? Jun 24 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-03 House seat? Jun 24 $2 $0 -23%
Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Jun 24 $57 −$1 -3%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 24 $104 −$3 -3%
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian gen Jun 24 $6 $0 -6%
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 24 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election Jun 24 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $104 −$3 -3%
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the Jun 24 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Slaven Kovačević be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Her Jun 24 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Jun 24 $33 −$1 -3%
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? Jun 24 $83 −$4 -5%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 24 $94 −$1 -1%
Will David Guetta perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime sh Jun 23 $0 $0 -5%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jun 23 $22 −$3 -16%
Will Cristopher Sanchez win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award? Jun 23 $113 −$3 -3%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 23 $12 −$4 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat? SELL No 87¢ $35 3m
Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat? BUY No 89¢ $36 4m
Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary e SELL Yes 41¢ $2 47m
Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary e SELL Yes 42¢ $6 47m
Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary e BUY Yes 42¢ $7 47m
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 46¢ $9 47m
Will Frank F. Blas Jr. win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary e BUY Yes 42¢ $2 47m
Will Vicente Ada win the 2026 Guam Governor Republican primary electio BUY No 60¢ $12 47m
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 76¢ $38 1h
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 77¢ $38 1h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? SELL No 29¢ $11 2h
Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? BUY No 30¢ $12 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat? SELL No 43¢ $8 2h
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat? BUY No 43¢ $9 2h
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? SELL No 29¢ $1 2h
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? BUY No 29¢ $1 2h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? SELL No 34¢ $7 3h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $7 3h
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e SELL No 45¢ $5 3h
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential e BUY No 45¢ $5 3h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-17 House seat? SELL No 83¢ $16 3h
Will the Democratic Party win the TX-17 House seat? BUY No 83¢ $17 3h
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-05 House seat? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will the Republican Party win the WA-08 House seat? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will the Republican Party win the WA-08 House seat? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1645 history records