Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:04:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82fb…0b6e sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$386 (+10%) realized +$359 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%18W / 31L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$829now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$117
14 days−$181
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$317
sports 25% −$23
other 11% −$68
tech 6% +$4
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -29.6% -36.3% 35% 35% -23.7%
≤30d 37 -12.7% -21.0% 38% 30% -12.5%
≤90d 49 -8.7% -17.4% 37% 29% -4.4%
all 49 -8.7% -17.4% 37% 29% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 29% -4.4%
10% -25.3% 29% -13.5%
15% -32.5% 27% -21.9%
20% -39.1% 22% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$22 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$829
Realized+$359
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses18 / 31
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions10
Markets (closed)49 / 59
History coverage73d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 70% and 75%? Yes 91¢ 96¢ $492 $518 +$26 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 94¢ 98¢ $113 $118 +$5 (+4%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 52¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 44¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 41¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $18 $15 −$3 (-16%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 2¢ 9¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+478%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-44%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $116 −$115 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$23 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $61 +$33 +54%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $32 +$12 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $136 +$69 +51%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$45 +90%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 +$52 +114%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$3 -34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $33 −$33 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $51 −$8 -17%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 10 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $61 −$10 -17%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $150 +$7 +5%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $153 −$34 -22%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $40 +$26 +63%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $53 −$34 -66%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $48 −$17 -36%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 31 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 28 $145 +$70 +48%
Will Alejandro Tabilo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $24 −$24 -99%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $46 −$11 -23%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $20 +$36 +174%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $23 −$12 -54%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 +$52 +172%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? May 23 $120 +$1 +1%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Ugo Humbert May 22 $16 +$53 +324%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec May 12 $574 +$54 +9%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 12 $26 −$25 -99%
Will CS Cristal win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Arsenal finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League May 04 $15 −$15 -98%
Aix en Provence: Ignacio Buse vs Alejandro Tabilo May 01 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 01 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in third place in the first round Apr 24 $39 +$11 +28%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse Apr 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elec Apr 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t Apr 15 $30 +$189 +629%
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 11 $79 +$86 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $41 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $47 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $29 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 51¢ $30 2h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $86 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 96¢ $60 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 88¢ $143 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $40 6h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $23 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $32 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $76 6h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) SELL Austria 7¢ $7 18h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) BUY Austria 10¢ $10 19h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $46 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 98¢ $59 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 98¢ $59 19h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 4¢ $5 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $15 25h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 6¢ $13 32h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $36 33h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $10 33h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $23 33h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $31 33h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $829.27 · official $829.27 (match) · 281 history records