Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:07:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82f9…5a40 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$3
other 19% −$4
sports 11% +$7
crypto 6% $0
politics 3% $0
weather 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 56% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 9 +0.1% -9.4% 56% 0% -10.3%
all 38 -3.9% -13.0% 53% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.4%
10% -21.3% 3% -18.0%
15% -28.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -35.9% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage491d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $75 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $37 −$2 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 +$1 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 29 $11 $0 +3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 27 $1 $0 +16%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23? May 20 $4 −$3 -80%
Will 'Senshi' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 20 May 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $6 $0 +3%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $5 $0 +4%
Will XRP reach $2.70 in April? Apr 22 $10 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $11 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $17 $0 +2%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 26 $17 $0 -1%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Mar 25 $17 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23? Mar 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $17 $0 +0%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 16 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $18 $0 -1%
Will the CDU/CSU win between 28% and 30% of the vote in the German ele Mar 15 $17 $0 +1%
Oral Roberts vs. UMKC Mar 05 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Bodo/Glimt vs. Olympiakos Piraeus end in a draw? Mar 05 $14 $0 +0%
Stonehill vs. Wagner Mar 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Mercyhurst Mar 05 $9 +$9 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $2 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $0 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $1 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $7 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $22 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $22 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $38 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $37 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $34 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $35 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $32 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $37 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $7 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $9 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 14d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 14d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $30 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $20 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $21 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $38 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $38 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.82 · official $35.78 (match) · 107 history records