Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:17:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
82 0x82f8…ada8 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+14%) realized +$12 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% +$7
sports 27% −$2
other 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+41.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +56.6% +41.7% 80% 70% +26.0%
≤30d 10 +56.6% +41.7% 80% 70% +26.0%
≤90d 10 +56.6% +41.7% 80% 70% +26.0%
all 10 +56.6% +41.7% 80% 70% +26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.7% 70% +26.0%
10% +28.2% 60% +13.9%
15% +15.8% 60% +2.9%
20% +4.4% 40% -7.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.18 per $1 lost it wins $6.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner France 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
France leading at halftime? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +158%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 59m
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner BUY France 1¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 2h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.73 (match) · 22 history records