Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82f7…d6c8 crypto 16 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$79 (-38%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 44% -44.0%
≤30d 16 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 44% -44.0%
≤90d 16 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 44% -44.0%
all 16 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 44% -44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.9% 44% -44.0%
10% ← realistic here -36.6% 44% -49.4%
15% -42.7% 38% -54.3%
20% -48.3% 25% -58.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $35 +$12 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$8 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $27 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $22 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records