Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:23:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82eb…efe0 weather 304 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,387 (-3%) realized −$1,387 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate81%245W / 59L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$375
30 days−$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$1,263
other 2% −$258
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.1% -13.2% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 75 +1.9% -7.8% 95% 15% -10.8%
≤90d 304 -3.3% -12.5% 81% 22% -12.3%
all 304 -3.3% -12.5% 81% 22% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 22% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 9% -20.7%
15% -28.5% 5% -28.4%
20% -35.5% 2% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$67 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,387
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses245 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)304 / 304
History coverage88d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 304 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 30? Jun 30 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30? Jun 30 $4 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $350 −$348 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $303 +$48 +16%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $227 +$43 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $158 −$124 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $138 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $358 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $76 +$19 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $108 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $179 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $243 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $303 +$39 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $243 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $134 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $59 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $281 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $216 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $341 +$22 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $311 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $304 +$35 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $785 −$394 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $163 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $292 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $439 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $232 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $174 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $315 +$19 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $314 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $107 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $91 +$12 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $104 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $480 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $107 +$9 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $302 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $304 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $34 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $149 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $567 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $349 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $179 +$25 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $77 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $283 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $324 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $402 +$24 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $173 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C or below on June 5? Jun 05 $237 +$57 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $200 48m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $175 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 30? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30? SELL No 75¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 30? BUY No 80¢ $4 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $350 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $143 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $208 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 86¢ $303 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $270 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $6 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $32 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $102 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $52 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $9 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $10 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $10 12d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 84¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 20¢ $34 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 48¢ $8 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 52¢ $8 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $8 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $65 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $10 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $43 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $5 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $140 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $15 13d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $51 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2213 history records