Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:48:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
82 0x82e7…c61c sports 1080 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,590 (-11%) realized −$6,591 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%681W / 393L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Fees−$269est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$961now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$1,023
other 45% −$1,731
politics 3% +$256
crypto 1% −$290
weather 0% +$3
world 0% +$6
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +0.3% -9.3% 72% 33% -11.2%
≤30d 275 -3.1% -12.3% 62% 35% -12.2%
≤90d 1074 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 37% -13.7%
all 1074 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 37% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 37% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 16% -22.0%
15% -29.6% 6% -29.5%
20% -36.5% 3% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$961
Realized−$6,591
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses681 / 393
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$269
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1074 / 1080
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1074 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands India 98¢ 99¢ $450 $456 +$6 (+1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $450 $448 −$2 (-1%)
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ 44¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Coco Gauff 73¢ 78¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $95 +$1 +1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $900 +$15 +2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 −$2 -1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $411 +$32 +8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $30 +$2 +5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,065 +$192 +18%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $742 +$48 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$14 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $646 +$31 +5%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $301 +$18 +6%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$5 +54%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $789 +$24 +3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $515 +$1 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $55 $0 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $605 −$93 -15%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $10 −$4 -40%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $24 +$4 +16%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $30 +$2 +5%
ITF Zhengzhou: JiaYi Wang vs Sonja Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 +$8 +33%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $88 −$62 -71%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 +$31 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $124 −$67 -54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $205 −$81 -40%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $323 +$19 +6%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $10 +$2 +25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $193 +$58 +30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $227 −$159 -70%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $80 −$2 -2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$4 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $395 −$290 -73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $264 +$62 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$6 +3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $273 +$17 +6%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $205 +$20 +10%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $353 +$32 +9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $154 +$84 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $377 −$223 -59%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $55 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $339 −$323 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $451 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $96 1h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 73¢ $15 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands BUY India 98¢ $450 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 80¢ $25 2h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 55¢ $20 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Australia 100¢ $916 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 98¢ $95 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Australia 98¢ $900 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $10 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $30 10h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $433 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 67¢ $48 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $48 11h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $60 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 89¢ $401 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $886 12h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 99¢ $154 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $115 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $59 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 97¢ $150 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $100 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 95¢ $636 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $372 13h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $592 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $960.89 · official $962.02 (match) · 3500 history records