Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82e4…9643
crypto · 1653 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$324 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$322 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$322
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses925 / 639
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1564 / 1653
History coverage61d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day44.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 2 History 1564 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$564
14 days+$446
30 days+$548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 70¢ 98¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+41%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$155
other 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $12 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $0 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $0 35m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $22 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $40 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $38 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 48m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $14 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $61 53m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1025 +3.5% -6.3% 59% 59% -3.6%
≤30d 1164 +1.4% -8.2% 57% 57% -6.3%
≤90d 1564 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 58% -10.3%
all 1564 -1.5% -10.9% 59% 58% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover44.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 58% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 54% -18.9%
15% -27.2% 35% -26.7%
20% -34.4% 28% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.66 · official $6.06 (match) · 3500 history records