Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x82df…0f66 weather 280 markets active 2h ago coverage 517d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,565 (+5%) realized +$3,537 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%265W / 14L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$29
14 days+$29
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$3,404
crypto 2% +$39
economics 0% −$16
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.9% -4.2% 100% 0% -4.2%
≤30d 21 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 179 +4.2% -5.7% 97% 9% -3.8%
all 279 +5.9% -4.2% 95% 8% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 8% -5.0%
10% -13.4% 5% -14.1%
15% -21.8% 3% -22.4%
20% -29.4% 2% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$50 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×9.46 per $1 lost it wins $9.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

517d coverage
Net worth$275
Realized+$3,537
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses265 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)279 / 280
History coverage517d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 279 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 27? No 90¢ 100¢ $247 $275 +$28 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 27 $248 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 26 $248 +$20 +8%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $298 +$11 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $99 +$1 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $938 +$5 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? Jun 01 $199 +$11 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 31? May 31 $729 +$38 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 31? May 31 $66 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31? May 31 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on May 31? May 31 $157 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 30? May 30 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 30? May 30 $550 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 30? May 30 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 30? May 30 $221 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 29? May 29 $240 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 29? May 29 $120 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on May 29? May 29 $846 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 29? May 29 $495 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on May 29? May 29 $205 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on May 28? May 28 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $846 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $715 +$20 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 28? May 28 $375 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $138 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $406 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on May 27? May 28 $580 +$141 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 27? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $340 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 27? May 27 $512 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $263 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $233 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C or below on May 27? May 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 26 $314 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 26? May 26 $478 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on May 26? May 26 $481 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 75°F or below on May 26? May 26 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 26? May 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 26? May 26 $305 +$21 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on May 26? May 26 $306 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on May 26? May 26 $818 +$10 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $407 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $58 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 25? May 25 $484 +$31 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 25? May 25 $63 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on May 25? May 25 $87 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $775 +$36 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 25? May 25 $534 +$33 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 90¢ $249 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 96¢ $248 16h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $248 2d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? SELL No 100¢ $309 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $529 25d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? SELL No 99¢ $209 25d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1? BUY No 93¢ $199 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 26d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 26-June 1? BUY No 96¢ $298 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $304 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $1 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $147 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $41 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $7 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $197 26d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 31? SELL No 100¢ $645 26d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 31? SELL No 100¢ $122 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $19 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $392 26d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 31? BUY No 95¢ $729 26d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 31? SELL No 100¢ $26 26d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 31? SELL No 100¢ $40 26d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 31? BUY No 99¢ $66 26d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31? SELL No 100¢ $2 26d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31? SELL No 100¢ $40 26d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31? SELL No 100¢ $5 26d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 31? SELL No 100¢ $20 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.43 · official $275.43 (match) · 911 history records