Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:07:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
82 0x82df…2265 other 159 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,452 (+1%) realized +$2,451 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate20%32W / 126L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1,349per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$21
14 days−$43
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$116
other 35% +$127
sports 14% +$2,359
world 3% $0
culture 1% −$4
economics 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 40 +0.3% -9.3% 8% 5% -9.6%
≤90d 100 +3.7% -6.2% 7% 5% -8.5%
all 158 +7.2% -3.0% 20% 11% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 11% -8.5%
10% -12.3% 11% -17.3%
15% -20.8% 10% -25.3%
20% -28.5% 8% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,788) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$5 · ×17.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.59 per $1 lost it wins $4.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$2,451
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses32 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,349
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $219 $220 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 22 $1,786 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $789 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,102 −$3 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,874 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,210 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,547 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,439 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,291 −$4 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,552 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3,162 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,967 −$3 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $3,576 −$5 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,683 −$3 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,809 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,814 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $453 +$1 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $2,278 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $3,269 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,941 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $772 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $68 +$87 +129%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 23 $36 +$48 +134%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $948 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,458 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $50 +$86 +172%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 20 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 19 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $2,363 −$3 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $781 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $804 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $771 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $772 2h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $786 4h
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $787 5h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $783 7h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $785 8h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $788 4d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $789 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $558 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $559 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $629 4d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $630 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $420 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $420 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $689 5d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $691 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $785 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $786 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $791 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $793 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $792 7d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $793 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $793 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $795 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $795 8d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $796 9d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $798 11d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $799 11d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $796 11d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $797 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.