Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:54:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x82dd…70c7 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$29 (+6%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$29
sports 10% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 31% -3.1%
≤30d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 31% -3.1%
≤90d 16 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 31% -3.1%
all 16 +0.8% -8.8% 75% 31% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 31% -3.1%
10% -17.5% 6% -12.4%
15% -25.5% 6% -20.9%
20% -32.8% 6% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.9 per $1 lost it wins $3.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $118 +$12 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $86 +$7 +8%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $12 −$5 -40%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $10 −$2 -19%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 27 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $4 $0 +6%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $19 +$3 +15%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -11%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas Jun 27 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +20%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 27 $2 $0 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $22 +$1 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 26 $19 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $40 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $80 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 94¢ $38 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $30 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 76¢ $9 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 89¢ $30 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 71¢ $29 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $13 11h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 11h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 11h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 62¢ $4 11h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 57¢ $15 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 79¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 12h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 66¢ $8 12h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $10 13h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Cincinnati Reds 91¢ $23 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 14h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Cincinnati Reds 80¢ $20 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.16 · official $99.16 (match) · 55 history records