Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82dd…cc61 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%34W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day109.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$13
sports 13% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -8.0% -16.7% 57% 48% -13.9%
≤30d 60 -8.0% -16.7% 57% 48% -13.9%
≤90d 60 -8.0% -16.7% 57% 48% -13.9%
all 60 -8.0% -16.7% 57% 48% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 48% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.7% 37% -22.1%
15% -32.0% 25% -29.7%
20% -38.7% 20% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses34 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage2d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day109.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -10%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 39¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $0 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 200 history records