Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:42:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82dc…8644 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-0%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%22W / 105L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$24
politics 28% −$13
sports 17% −$13
crypto 9% −$1
culture 5% −$8
finance 4% $0
world 3% −$3
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 17% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 67 -0.7% -10.1% 16% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 113 -0.5% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
all 127 -0.5% -10.0% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses22 / 105
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage101d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $55 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 18 $103 +$1 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $275 −$2 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 18 $104 $0 +0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $314 −$4 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $29 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $113 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 16 $54 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $46 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $46 −$2 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $37 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $52 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $80 −$1 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $67 −$1 -2%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $389 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $46 +$1 +2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $58 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 -1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $418 −$2 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $547 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 02 $154 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $220 −$1 -0%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $59 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $59 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $57 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 8h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 8h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 13h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 13h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 13h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $43 18h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 18h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 22h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 22h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 98¢ $43 23h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $43 28h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 29h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 33h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $50 33h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $25 37h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 37h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 38h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 45h
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 46h
Will Algeria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $58 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $58 3d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.53 · official $56.53 (match) · 511 history records