Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
82 0x82db…26b7 crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13,889 (+40%) realized +$14,212 · open −$323
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1,656per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$230est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$11,107
crypto 34% +$12
other 14% +$2,111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +42.8% +29.2% 55% 55% +9.4%
≤30d 19 +30.4% +18.0% 58% 58% +27.6%
≤90d 19 +30.4% +18.0% 58% 58% +27.6%
all 19 +30.4% +18.0% 58% 58% +27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.0% 58% +27.6%
10% +6.7% 53% +15.4%
15% -3.6% 47% +4.2%
20% -13.0% 37% -6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,497) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,857 vs −$859 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.97 per $1 lost it wins $2.97
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1,179
Realized+$14,212
Unrealized−$323
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$230
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage16d
Avg bet$1,656
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 50¢ 54¢ $1,102 $1,178 +$76 (+7%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Roar Gaming 20¢ 0¢ $400 $1 −$399 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $1,872 +$2,372 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $523 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3,447 +$803 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1,671 −$1,620 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $524 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $511 +$204 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $296 +$106 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,160 −$1,099 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $537 −$537 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$707 +664%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,732 +$3,031 +81%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $7,247 +$4,870 +67%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $2,497 +$4,750 +190%
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Rec May 30 $998 −$986 -99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs BBL Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qu May 30 $3,275 +$2,301 +70%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $1,104 +$146 +13%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 30 $1,989 +$1,137 +57%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $718 −$712 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,021 −$920 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $106 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $399 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $370 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $266 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $105 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $391 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $553 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $616 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $216 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $307 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $406 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $53 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1,466 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $903 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $620 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $420 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $259 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $355 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $189 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $448 29m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $79 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $262 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $183 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $715 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $477 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $33 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $64 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $296 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,179.05 · official $1,201.07 · 80 history records