Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82da…da33 sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$73,250 (-25%) realized −$70,876 · open −$2,374
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate48%63W / 69L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,222per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1,565est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,626now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$632
7 days+$5,796
14 days+$4,216
30 days−$10,845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$38,136
world 18% −$5,572
other 13% −$31,850
crypto 4% −$993
politics 4% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +25.3% +13.4% 50% 50% +33.3%
≤30d 50 -12.7% -21.0% 40% 40% -20.3%
≤90d 111 -10.3% -18.9% 42% 41% -34.3%
all 132 -7.4% -16.2% 48% 39% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 39% -32.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 33% -38.9%
15% -31.6% 29% -44.8%
20% -38.3% 25% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$2,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$935 vs −$1,929 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$1,626
Realized−$70,876
Unrealized−$2,374
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses63 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,565
Open positions2
Markets (closed)132 / 134
History coverage188d
Avg bet$2,222
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 42¢ $2,000 $1,604 −$396 (-20%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Under 45¢ 0¢ $2,000 $22 −$1,978 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2,033 −$2,000 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,038 +$3,368 +165%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,038 −$2,000 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,548 +$4,396 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2,662 +$3,032 +114%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $2,787 +$300 +11%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $5,689 −$904 -16%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $2,390 +$1,301 +54%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $8,528 −$6,137 -72%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,033 −$2,000 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,377 −$1,351 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,023 +$1,228 +61%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $906 −$888 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $512 +$2,366 +462%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $87 −$85 -97%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1,004 +$145 +14%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $4,033 +$879 +22%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2,034 +$2,617 +129%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $343 −$343 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $2,027 +$1,609 +79%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $1,024 +$3,681 +360%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $4,982 −$4,875 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 1 Winner May 30 $956 −$937 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$5 +52%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2,027 −$2,000 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,501 −$1,476 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,524 −$1,500 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,018 +$1,546 +152%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,518 −$1,500 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,518 +$971 +64%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1,519 +$1,031 +68%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $2,010 +$412 +20%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,142 +$3,014 +141%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,011 −$990 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,524 −$1,500 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $251 −$244 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $3,090 +$1,832 +59%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,021 +$1,069 +53%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $2,350 −$2,320 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $1,141 −$1,121 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $1,001 −$977 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2,033 58m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,028 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $2,033 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2,038 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2,038 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $2,548 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $602 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,060 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 90¢ $2,787 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $2,787 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 69¢ $2 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 71¢ $1,995 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Yandex 32¢ $138 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Yandex 30¢ $1,859 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 57¢ $10 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 53¢ $3,682 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $3,691 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 63¢ $4 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 64¢ $2,386 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL BetBoom Team 8¢ $473 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL BetBoom Team 21¢ $1,917 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 43¢ $11 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 42¢ $3,468 8d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 68¢ $5,048 9d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 45¢ $2,033 9d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 38¢ $357 9d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 34¢ $1,020 9d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 30¢ $906 9d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 62¢ $2,023 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,625.78 · official $1,625.78 (match) · 377 history records