Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:52:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
82 0x82d5…c13e politics 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$332now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% −$4
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.0% -14.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 12 -5.0% -14.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -5.0% -14.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 14 -4.2% -13.3% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$332
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage250d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $159 $158 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $158 $158 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $191 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1 $0 -19%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $188 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -18%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Dec 17 $19 $0 +2%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 17 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 3h
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $158 4h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 6h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 8h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 9h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 10h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 11h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 13h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 16h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 17h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 18h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 19h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 20h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 22h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 23h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 24h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 24h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 26h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 28h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 30h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 35h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 38h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 40h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $331.92 · official $331.92 (match) · 39 history records