Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82d5…116d
crypto · 68 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$105 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$98 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 35
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)67 / 68
History coverage108d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$17
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Vitality 76¢ 58¢ $32 $25 −$7 (-23%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Matteo Berrettini 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$1 -65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$1 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $7 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $39 +$14 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 03 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 03 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 03 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +12%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1 $0 -6%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $1 +$1 +93%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. Was Jun 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$1 -46%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 01 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 01 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +19%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $17 +$1 +7%
Map Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs EYEBALLERS (+1.5) Apr 04 $328 −$23 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 31 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 31 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs CarritoSpain (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D Mar 29 $199 −$79 -40%
Counter-Strike: SAW vs TEAM ASCEND (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B Mar 28 $40 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs NOMERCY (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Gro Mar 28 $166 +$34 +21%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs Vexa (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Ame Mar 22 $38 −$3 -7%
Counter-Strike: Players vs Keyd (BO3) - ESL Challenger League South Am Mar 22 $40 −$3 -7%
Map 3: Odd/Even Total Kills? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Team Secret Whales - Game 4 Winner Mar 19 $230 −$53 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 09 $20 −$9 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 09 $37 +$22 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 09 $200 +$25 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$118
crypto 48% +$14
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 76¢ $32 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 44m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 16¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 72¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 62¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 66¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 47¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 44¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL Team Falcons 86¢ $9 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 22¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 24¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Monte 43¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 35¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 64¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $7 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BIG 64¢ $53 3d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 46¢ $39 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $4 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 75% 50% +7.6%
≤30d 35 -28.1% -34.9% 43% 34% -11.8%
≤90d 46 -25.0% -32.1% 39% 30% -25.3%
all 67 -14.9% -23.0% 48% 40% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 40% -13.2%
10% -30.4% 28% -21.5%
15% -37.1% 22% -29.1%
20% -43.3% 18% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.63 · official $36.63 · 174 history records