Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82d4…0f8d world 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%37W / 41L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days+$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$28
other 16% +$2
politics 11% +$6
sports 8% −$14
economics 5% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 30% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 33 +13.1% +2.3% 52% 6% -8.2%
≤90d 66 +6.7% -3.5% 42% 3% -8.8%
all 78 +8.4% -1.9% 47% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 6% -8.9%
10% -11.3% 4% -17.6%
15% -19.9% 3% -25.6%
20% -27.7% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses37 / 41
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage522d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $65 −$4 -6%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $34 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $243 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $61 +$2 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $62 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $127 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $114 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $119 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $42 +$4 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $142 +$25 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $59 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $48 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 18 $11 +$1 +7%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 18 $31 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $92 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $40 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 +10%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $80 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $6 $0 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $3 $0 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 32h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 32h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 32h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $18 32h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $12 32h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 37h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $41 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $19 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $65 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $24 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $33 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $19 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $21 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $66 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $39 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $23 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $61 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 331 history records