Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82cf…0998
sports · 229 markets active 7h ago
5.0score
+$89,945 +54%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$92,821 · open −$2,641
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized+$92,821
Unrealized−$2,641
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses157 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$295
Open positions2
Markets (closed)226 / 229
History coverage153d
Avg bet$732
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 2 History 226 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,825
7 days+$9,503
14 days+$23,899
30 days+$23,266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027? Yes 42¢ 10¢ $89 $23 −$67 (-75%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? No 9¢ 0¢ $2,589 $14 −$2,575 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 15? No 0¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 9¢ 0¢ $358 $0 −$358 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? Under 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $74 $0 −$74 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 44.5 in Game 2? Under 50¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 10000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark? No 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? No 25¢ 0¢ $176 $0 −$176 (-100%)
Will FC Universitatea Cluj win on 2026-04-13? No 1¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Universitatea Cluj: O/U 4.5 Over 1¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Universitatea Cluj: O/U 1.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Universitatea Cluj: Both Teams to Score Yes 1¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Spread: Universitatea Craiova CS (-2.5) Universitatea Craiova CS 1¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? No 1¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Sleepy Joe" or "Biden" during the White House Easter Egg Roll? No 3¢ 0¢ $76 $0 −$76 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Universitatea Craiova CS vs. FC Universitatea Cluj: O/U 2.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $830 $0 −$830 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) Jun 11 $21 −$16 -74%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $61 +$61 +100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1 +$72 +7611%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $119 +$119 +100%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $7,926 +$1,588 +20%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? Jun 10 $286 +$114 +40%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $401 −$217 -54%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $0 +$4 +850%
Will "Kai Harada" win Best Sound Design of a Musical at the 2026 Tony Jun 08 $1,435 +$7,777 +542%
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Utah State Aggies Jun 03 $5 −$2 -41%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 01 $464 +$2,027 +437%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $74 −$74 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $48 +$93 +194%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $35 −$24 -67%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs KUUSAMO.gg (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #3 Group B May 31 $0 $0 +96%
World Championships: Switzerland/Norway vs. Canada/Finland May 30 $9,965 +$8,421 +84%
Dota 2: unknow vs BALU - Game 2 Winner May 30 $618 +$323 +52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 30 $3 +$10 +400%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $0 +$3 +1105%
Will Nice vs. Saint-Etienne end in a draw? May 30 $5 +$5 +100%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $15 +$15 +100%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-29? May 30 $661 +$586 +89%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 30 $481 +$1,457 +303%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 29 $284 +$849 +299%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $769 +$705 +92%
Caracas FC vs. Botafogo FR: Draw at halftime? May 29 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Trump designate Brazil's PCC or CV as a terrorists by December 31 May 28 $17 $0 +1%
Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 27 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Cabinet meeting? May 27 $467 −$362 -78%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $305 on May 22? May 21 $275 +$3 +1%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? May 20 $517 −$450 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17? May 17 $13 +$46 +363%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17? May 17 $19 −$18 -95%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? May 15 $0 +$32 +16960%
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $9 +$14 +162%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 14 $91 +$86 +95%
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 10000 packages during the o May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Ass" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experienc May 13 $21 +$8 +40%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026? May 12 $95 +$364 +382%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Apr 30 $726 −$702 -97%
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 28 $0 +$1 +99900%
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 28 $434 +$1,028 +237%
Will Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 27 $2 +$2 +86%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $1 +$6 +600%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 26 $308 +$902 +293%
Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event? Apr 24 $1,001 +$982 +98%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - ESL Challenger Apr 23 $2 +$2 +98%
Will Trump say "Where is" 3+ times during NCAA National Champions rema Apr 21 $47 −$2 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the Rolex Index hit $12,450 (HIGH) by April 30? Apr 21 $90 +$69 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% +$60,910
other 18% +$9,112
world 17% +$11,014
politics 10% +$1,804
finance 3% +$3,126
tech 0% +$125
culture 0% +$4,492
economics 0% −$387
crypto 0% −$102
weather 0% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $357 7h
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) SELL LOS 0¢ $2 16h
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) SELL LOS 1¢ $4 16h
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) BUY LOS 1¢ $21 17h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $122 19h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 76¢ $27 19h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 76¢ $13 19h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 79¢ $33 19h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 1¢ $1 20h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $61 20h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher SELL Anas Mazdrashki 100¢ $3,000 24h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher SELL Anas Mazdrashki 100¢ $2,884 24h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher SELL Anas Mazdrashki 100¢ $609 24h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher SELL Anas Mazdrashki 100¢ $2,939 24h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher SELL Anas Mazdrashki 100¢ $80 24h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher SELL Anas Mazdrashki 100¢ $1 25h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher SELL Anas Mazdrashki 100¢ $1 25h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher BUY Anas Mazdrashki 84¢ $1,518 25h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher BUY Anas Mazdrashki 84¢ $670 25h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher BUY Anas Mazdrashki 83¢ $1,414 25h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher BUY Anas Mazdrashki 83¢ $721 25h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher BUY Anas Mazdrashki 82¢ $1,438 25h
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher BUY Anas Mazdrashki 82¢ $2,165 25h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 25h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $119 26h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $29 38h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $0 38h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $10 38h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $0 38h
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $5 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+128.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +390.8% +344.0% 78% 78% +74.2%
≤30d 38 +235.7% +203.7% 74% 68% +75.8%
≤90d 114 +153.4% +129.3% 67% 60% +29.1%
all 226 +152.8% +128.7% 69% 60% +32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +128.7% 60% +32.4%
10% +106.9% 56% +19.8%
15% ← realistic here +86.9% 48% +8.2%
20% +68.5% 39% -2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.49 · official $36.49 (match) · 3500 history records