Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:10:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

82 0x82ce…3be5 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate21%3W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit57%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$0

7 days−$0

14 days−$0

30 days−$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-0.0%	-9.5%	0%	0%	-9.5%
≤30d	2	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	10	-0.0%	-9.5%	30%	0%	-9.5%
all	14	-0.0%	-9.6%	21%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.6%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-18.2%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-26.1%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-33.4%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 64% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -0% → late +0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.53 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)21%

Wins / losses3 / 11

Open positions0

Markets (closed)14 / 14

History coverage105d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 14 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Jun 20	$82	$0	-0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 02	$82	$0	-0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	May 21	$82	$0	+0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	May 15	$82	$0	+0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?	May 14	$82	$0	-0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Apr 17	$83	$0	-0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	Apr 13	$83	$0	+0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Apr 09	$84	$0	-0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March?	Mar 31	$84	$0	+0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	Mar 24	$84	$0	-0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Mar 18	$84	$0	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?	Mar 15	$84	$0	+0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Mar 12	$84	$0	-0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Mar 07	$84	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$82	1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$82	13h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$82	18d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$82	20d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	99¢	$82	30d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	99¢	$82	32d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$82	35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$82	36d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?	SELL No	99¢	$82	37d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?	BUY No	99¢	$82	37d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$83	64d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$83	64d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$83	67d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	99¢	$83	68d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	99¢	$83	72d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$84	72d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March?	SELL No	100¢	$84	80d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$84	81d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$84	88d
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$84	89d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$84	94d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$84	95d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?	SELL No	100¢	$84	96d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March?	BUY No	100¢	$84	97d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	SELL No	98¢	$84	100d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	BUY No	99¢	$84	101d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	SELL No	100¢	$84	105d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY No	100¢	$84	105d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records