Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:04:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82ce…c305 politics 33 markets active 3h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$3
other 32% −$2
culture 17% −$1
sports 4% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage17d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 100¢ 100¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Fast Charlie" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $198 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $200 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $234 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $102 $0 -0%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $134 $0 -0%
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $237 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $146 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $236 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $235 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $150 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $235 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $239 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $135 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $100 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $238 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $225 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Fast Charlie" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $33 3h
Will "Danny Go!: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $100 3h
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $101 3h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $198 28h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 29h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $200 29h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 29h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $235 29h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $235 30h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $230 30h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $230 31h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $234 31h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $234 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $102 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $102 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $136 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $136 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $134 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $134 7d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $135 8d
Will Dan Caine be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 8d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $125 8d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $125 8d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $137 8d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $137 8d
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $118 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $118 9d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $237 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $117 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $234.08 · official $234.08 (match) · 78 history records