Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82cd…00ae crypto 393 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (139 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,175 (-8%) realized −$1,175 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%244W / 389L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day138.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,003
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (139 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-45.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 382 -64.2% -67.6% 35% 1% -44.4%
≤30d 633 -39.4% -45.2% 39% 17% -28.1%
≤90d 633 -39.4% -45.2% 39% 17% -28.1%
all 633 -39.4% -45.2% 39% 17% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover138.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.2% 17% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -50.4% 17% -35.0%
15% -55.2% 16% -41.3%
20% -59.6% 16% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses244 / 389
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)633 / 393
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day138.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 633 Trades
no open positions (359 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$3 -205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$2 -206%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$2 -206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$3 -205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in April 2026? Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $19 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $19 8m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $65 9m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 10m
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $19 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 17m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 18m
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $19 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 18m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $13 22m
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $75 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $75 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $38 32m
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $8 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $38 32m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 33m
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $38 37m
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 37m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records