Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:22:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82c8…104c crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +62% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip
Net edge+25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$6
crypto 43% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +62.5% +47.1% 30% 30% +32.6%
≤30d 30 +62.5% +47.1% 30% 30% +32.6%
≤90d 30 +62.5% +47.1% 30% 30% +32.6%
all 30 +62.5% +47.1% 30% 30% +32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +47.1% 30% +32.6%
10% ← realistic here +33.0% 27% +19.9%
15% +20.1% 23% +8.4%
20% +8.4% 23% -2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +107% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.81 per $1 lost it wins $1.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 +$3 +240%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$2 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +33%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$68 +2163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$15 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$8 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 +$4 +358%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 +$4 +364%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 −$2 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 7m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 9m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 13m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 29m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 36m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.39 · official $72.39 (match) · 93 history records