Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:10:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82c8…da77 crypto 79 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$536 (+2%) realized +$461 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate70%54W / 23L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day3420.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$461
7 days+$461
14 days+$461
30 days+$461
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$463
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 +1.7% -8.0% 70% 3% -7.8%
≤30d 77 +1.7% -8.0% 70% 3% -7.8%
≤90d 77 +1.7% -8.0% 70% 3% -7.8%
all 77 +1.7% -8.0% 70% 3% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3420.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 3% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 1% -16.6%
15% -24.9% 0% -24.7%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
43.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.3 per $1 lost it wins $5.3
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$461
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses54 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 79
History coverage1d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day3420.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Up 46¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$2 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $180 +$14 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $164 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $399 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $278 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $326 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $246 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $294 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $415 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $502 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $539 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $297 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $251 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $699 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $422 +$12 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $619 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $692 +$14 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $278 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $685 −$8 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $515 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $692 +$57 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $594 +$21 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $182 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $167 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $307 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $374 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $424 +$35 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $298 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $189 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $205 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $158 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $253 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $191 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $277 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $162 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $218 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $180 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $228 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $439 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $154 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $203 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $295 −$8 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $259 −$3 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $194 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $63 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $362 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $307 −$10 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $280 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $37 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $13 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $22 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $13 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $22 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.35 · official $52.35 (match) · 3500 history records