Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:24:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82c7…64d3 crypto 120 markets active 4h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$147 (-2%) realized −$146 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%63W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$57
14 days−$147
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$127
other 34% −$171
politics 10% +$140
tech 7% −$56
sports 5% −$16
finance 2% −$11
crypto 2% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +9.7% -0.8% 64% 55% -6.9%
≤30d 33 -4.9% -14.0% 48% 39% -14.2%
≤90d 76 -11.5% -19.9% 46% 29% -12.0%
all 119 -8.7% -17.4% 53% 37% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 37% -11.8%
10% -25.3% 18% -20.2%
15% -32.6% 10% -27.9%
20% -39.2% 7% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$146
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses63 / 56
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)119 / 120
History coverage112d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$34 +34%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $136 +$22 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $131 +$29 +22%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $43 +$12 +28%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $182 −$70 -39%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $249 −$65 -26%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$27 +27%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$18 -18%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$10 +322%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +71%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $201 +$31 +16%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $100 −$22 -22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$80 -80%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $224 +$19 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $195 −$44 -23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $150 −$29 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $151 −$48 -32%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $150 −$40 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $99 −$33 -33%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $15 −$14 -92%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $15 −$10 -69%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $446 +$59 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 25 $77 −$27 -35%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 23 $87 −$10 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $1,134 +$40 +4%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? May 19 $93 −$33 -35%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $179 −$115 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 16 $5 +$1 +10%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $356 −$48 -13%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 12 $155 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 10 $467 +$37 +8%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 09 $100 +$2 +2%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 07 $304 −$14 -5%
Will the Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (BGPM) win the most seat May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in May? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 23 $200 −$41 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $135 12h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 17h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $99 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $157 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 40h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $105 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $35 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $124 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 56¢ $55 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $30 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $81 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.86 · official $98.86 (match) · 369 history records