Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82c5…bcef crypto 257 markets active 8h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%117W / 140L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$26
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 -10.7% -19.2% 50% 49% -13.8%
≤30d 257 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 45% -11.9%
≤90d 257 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 45% -11.9%
all 257 -5.2% -14.2% 46% 45% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 45% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 44% -20.3%
15% -29.9% 38% -28.0%
20% -36.8% 33% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses117 / 140
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions (140 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $3 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $3 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 409 history records