Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
82 0x82c1…4395 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 7% -5.2%
≤30d 14 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 7% -5.2%
≤90d 14 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 7% -5.2%
all 14 +4.8% -5.2% 100% 7% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 7% -5.2%
10% -14.3% 0% -14.3%
15% -22.6% 0% -22.6%
20% -30.2% 0% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records