Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:46:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82c0…02fd sports 379 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,587 (-9%) realized −$1,588 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate21%78W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$761
7 days+$1,321
14 days+$1,172
30 days+$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$2,287
other 11% +$441
crypto 1% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +38.2% +25.0% 32% 32% +20.6%
≤30d 120 -12.4% -20.8% 21% 21% -3.1%
≤90d 146 -13.1% -21.3% 21% 21% -8.0%
all 378 -12.5% -20.8% 21% 20% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 20% -19.3%
10% -28.4% 20% -27.1%
15% -35.3% 19% -34.1%
20% -41.6% 19% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$45 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$1,588
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses78 / 300
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions1
Markets (closed)378 / 379
History coverage161d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 378 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 21¢ 22¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 291 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$486 +474%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 +$398 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$168 +165%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 +$201 +197%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $103 −$100 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -98%
Set Handicap: Lamens (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $124 +$43 +35%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $20 +$40 +194%
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Jun 16 $20 +$19 +92%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $51 +$199 +388%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 16 $112 +$156 +140%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $153 +$206 +135%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $31 +$356 +1156%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $132 +$133 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $82 −$80 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $103 +$11 +11%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $100 +$511 +509%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $141 −$138 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Benito Sanchez Martinez vs Roberto Bautista Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $49 +$542 +1116%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $62 +$259 +414%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $44 −$43 -98%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
ITF Wuning: Mei Yamaguchi vs Zongyu Li Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Eri Shimizu vs Mayuka Aikawa Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $29 −$28 -97%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Stefano Travaglia 21¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $102 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $92 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $102 12h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $102 12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $303 12h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Gabriel Diallo 9¢ $103 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $49 17h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 17h
Set Handicap: Lamens (-1.5) vs Badosa (+1.5) BUY Lamens 29¢ $51 18h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 15¢ $31 18h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 31¢ $22 19h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Leylah Fernandez 39¢ $161 20h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron SELL Ignacio Buse 99¢ $60 20h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 24¢ $102 20h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Ignacio Buse 33¢ $20 20h
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) SELL Rublev 0¢ $0 20h
Set Handicap: Rublev (-1.5) vs Hurkacz (+1.5) BUY Rublev 31¢ $51 21h
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 29¢ $31 22h
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair SELL Saki Tange 40¢ $39 24h
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair BUY Saki Tange 20¢ $20 27h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 41¢ $112 34h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 8¢ $51 34h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 20¢ $51 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $204 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $103 41h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $102 41h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $31 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $153 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.85 · official $50.85 (match) · 577 history records