Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82c0…e17e other 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$32
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$20
politics 27% −$26
sports 21% −$16
crypto 7% −$5
tech 3% −$4
culture 3% −$3
world 2% −$2
economics 2% −$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.2% -10.6% 7% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 72 -1.1% -10.5% 7% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 114 -0.8% -10.2% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 128 -0.7% -10.2% 14% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 110
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage100d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 97¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 16 $61 −$3 -4%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $262 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $62 $0 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$3 -6%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $43 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $56 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $41 −$3 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $54 −$1 -1%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $59 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $668 −$5 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $90 −$1 -1%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $65 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 07 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 07 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 06 $31 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $299 −$2 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 04 $102 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $78 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $124 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $273 −$3 -1%
Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $307 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $49 1h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 2h
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 8h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 8h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 12h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $44 13h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $45 19h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $55 19h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $55 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $62 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $63 33h
Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 89¢ $59 34h
Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 93¢ $61 39h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $48 39h
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 43h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $54 44h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $62 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $62 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $49 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $49 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $53 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $51 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $54 3d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $50 3d
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $51 3d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.33 · official $49.33 (match) · 492 history records