Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82bf…de71 crypto 308 markets active 6h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (485 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,301 (+16%) realized +$2,301 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%129W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day485.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$676
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (485 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 308 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 31% -13.7%
≤30d 308 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 31% -13.7%
≤90d 308 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 31% -13.7%
all 308 -7.7% -16.5% 42% 31% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover485.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.5% 31% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 22% -21.9%
15% -31.8% 18% -29.5%
20% -38.4% 15% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,301
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses129 / 179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)308 / 308
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day485.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 308 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$16 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$8 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$8 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$8 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$7 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$38 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $18 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$13 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$21 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$11 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $14 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $79 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $25 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $14 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $24 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records