Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82be…f85d crypto 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%52W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$16
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -0.8% -10.2% 76% 43% -9.6%
≤30d 73 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 44% -19.6%
≤90d 73 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 44% -19.6%
all 73 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 44% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 44% -19.6%
10% -19.7% 27% -27.3%
15% -27.4% 19% -34.3%
20% -34.6% 14% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses52 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage28d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET May 28 $1 +$2 +214%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5AM ET May 26 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2AM ET May 25 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1AM ET May 25 $4 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11PM ET May 25 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10AM ET May 24 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9AM ET May 24 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2AM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.63 (match) · 164 history records