Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x82bb…a884 culture 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care culture specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$3 · open +$19
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%9W / 1L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$679now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 64% +$18
other 33% +$12
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.7% -5.3% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 10 -0.8% -10.2% 90% 0% -6.8%
≤90d 10 -0.8% -10.2% 90% 0% -6.8%
all 10 -0.8% -10.2% 90% 0% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -6.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -15.7%
15% -26.6% 0% -23.9%
20% -33.8% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.17 per $1 lost it wins $6.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$679
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses9 / 1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)10 / 18
History coverage21d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 16 $51 +$3 +5%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 16 $97 +$7 +7%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $6 −$2 -30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju Jun 09 $48 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 07 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee BUY Yes 90¢ $43 1h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee BUY Yes 88¢ $17 1h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 88¢ $98 1h
Will "Choosin’ Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY No 58¢ $1 23h
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 96¢ $48 42h
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 84¢ $25 2d
Will Beyonce have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 94¢ $14 2d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 96¢ $30 2d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 97¢ $47 2d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 95¢ $44 3d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 96¢ $40 3d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 93¢ $20 5d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 95¢ $50 6d
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 89¢ $51 6d
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 89¢ $51 6d
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY No 82¢ $6 9d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 94¢ $15 10d
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 11d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 92¢ $14 11d
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners BUY Yes 92¢ $25 11d
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 # BUY Yes 98¢ $5 11d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY No 97¢ $4 11d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 63¢ $4 11d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY Yes 98¢ $5 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 88¢ $3 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $3 13d
Will "hate that i made you love me - Ariana Grande" be the #1 song on BUY Yes 97¢ $6 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 99¢ $7 14d
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $10 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 97¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.48 · official $679.48 (match) · 50 history records