Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82ba…b905 crypto 1263 markets active 4h ago coverage 36d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$305 (-4%) realized −$305 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%737W / 688L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day78.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,633
7 days−$1,689
14 days−$1,711
30 days−$1,724
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$236
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 -52.4% -56.9% 37% 37% -64.3%
≤30d 967 -20.4% -28.0% 56% 56% -29.6%
≤90d 1425 -17.9% -25.7% 52% 50% -26.5%
all 1425 -17.9% -25.7% 52% 50% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover78.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 50% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 47% -33.5%
15% -39.3% 20% -39.9%
20% -45.3% 13% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$305
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses737 / 688
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1425 / 1263
History coverage36d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day78.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1425 Trades
no open positions (486 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$13 -391%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records