Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:08:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82b9…c6ce
sports · 904 markets active 2h ago
3.5score
−$23,480 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22,981 · open −$384
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,987
Realized−$22,981
Unrealized−$384
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses501 / 335
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions67
Markets (closed)836 / 904
History coverage512d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 67 History 836 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$277
14 days+$78
30 days+$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $500 $539 +$39 (+8%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 72¢ $500 $470 −$30 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $300 $446 +$146 (+49%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $500 $363 −$137 (-27%)
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $300 $352 +$52 (+17%)
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $300 $306 +$6 (+2%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $250 $281 +$31 (+12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $250 $235 −$15 (-6%)
Will Team Spirit qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+6%)
Will LYON win LCS 2026 Spring? No 64¢ 43¢ $309 $209 −$100 (-32%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 58¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 88¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 90¢ 84¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-7%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 64¢ $200 $165 −$35 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 79¢ 100¢ $100 $127 +$27 (+27%)
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $101 $94 −$7 (-7%)
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Yes 80¢ 68¢ $111 $94 −$17 (-15%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 79¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 69¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $50 +$13 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$17 +34%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $25 +$14 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$28 +109%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $50 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 +$17 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$29 +57%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$111 +109%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Karmine Corp win LEC 2026 Spring? Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Movistar KOI qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 08 $25 +$18 +70%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 +$25 +97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 +$27 +105%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $25 +$44 +172%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $50 +$22 +44%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $101 +$34 +34%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $150 +$236 +158%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $25 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $25 +$25 +97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 04 $51 +$42 +83%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $50 +$15 +29%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 02 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Marcos Senesi be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup Jun 02 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $25 +$8 +32%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $50 +$23 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 02 $101 −$8 -8%
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? Jun 02 $500 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$20,849
sports 26% −$890
politics 7% −$153
world 5% +$1,359
tech 4% −$1,533
crypto 4% −$16
culture 3% −$1,252
finance 0% +$87
weather 0% −$94
economics 0% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY 71¢ $50 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $51 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 36¢ $25 14h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 61¢ $25 14h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $101 14h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 79¢ $50 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $50 14h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $50 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $101 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 23h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 51¢ $51 45h
Will a team from LEC (Europe / EMEA) win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 74¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 47¢ $25 2d
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 3d
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 3d
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score a Free Kick? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 3d
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise BUY Dembele 45¢ $25 3d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 3d
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? BUY Missed 22¢ $26 3d
I'll read the skill first to apply the correct format.Will Lionel Mess BUY Yes 40¢ $51 3d
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 3d
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 3d
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +10.3% -0.2% 65% 65% +5.9%
≤30d 151 -1.0% -10.4% 63% 60% -7.8%
≤90d 319 -3.0% -12.3% 63% 55% -11.9%
all 836 -5.7% -14.7% 60% 53% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 53% -26.5%
10% -22.8% 42% -33.5%
15% -30.3% 28% -40.0%
20% -37.1% 18% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,987.46 · official $7,038.83 (match) · 2308 history records