Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:55:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82b9…dd00 sports 639 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-8%) realized −$136 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%290W / 335L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$2
14 days+$9
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$125
crypto 15% −$30
other 3% −$13
world 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -4.5% -13.6% 58% 52% -10.5%
≤30d 197 -10.5% -19.0% 53% 51% -12.7%
≤90d 623 -16.6% -24.5% 47% 43% -18.4%
all 625 -16.8% -24.8% 46% 43% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 43% -18.5%
10% -32.0% 36% -26.3%
15% -38.5% 29% -33.4%
20% -44.6% 20% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses290 / 335
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions14
Markets (closed)625 / 639
History coverage95d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 625 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs Ground Zero 71¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Sashi Esport 74¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 78¢ 78¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Playoffs MARKandLARRY 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage ex-RUBY 56¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs 100 Thieves 55¢ 55¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Clutchain 68¢ 67¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 64¢ 63¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ALKA 64¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 204 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 15 $2 +$1 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +172%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $1 +$1 +126%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 15 $2 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -82%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $2 +$2 +111%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $1 +$3 +262%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +67%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Counter-Strike: Oxuji Esports vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 13 $2 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $2 +$1 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2 +$1 +43%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 47¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: ALKA vs ODDIK Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ALKA 64¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series BUY Team Nemesis 78¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 56¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 50¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 31¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY Clutchain 68¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 62¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 71¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY TDK 64¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 74¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri SELL MIBR Academy 2¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li SELL BESTIA Academy 99¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A SELL ODDIK 98¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs BESTIA Academy (BO1) - Gamers Club Li BUY BESTIA Academy 91¢ $2 10h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $3 10h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof SELL ReThink 54¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof BUY ReThink 23¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL SPARTA 100¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri BUY MIBR Academy 68¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 66¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY ex-RUBY 62¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut SELL Team Nemesis 99¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 99¢ $12 16h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 85¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY SPARTA 59¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $1 21h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $2 21h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 66¢ $2 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.26 · official $21.24 (match) · 1286 history records