Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:13:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82b9…0c00 crypto 59 markets active 2d ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%32W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -27.4% -34.3% 47% 42% -39.0%
≤30d 59 -10.4% -18.9% 54% 42% -17.7%
≤90d 59 -10.4% -18.9% 54% 42% -17.7%
all 59 -10.4% -18.9% 54% 42% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 42% -17.7%
10% -26.7% 22% -25.6%
15% -33.8% 20% -32.8%
20% -40.3% 15% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses32 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage15d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$2 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records