Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:55:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82b8…030d other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$20 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +127% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +106% what you keep after slip
Net edge+106%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$1
14 days+$22
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$10
culture 13% +$4
sports 8% −$7
tech 5% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+105.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -16.9% -24.8% 50% 50% -11.4%
≤30d 9 +127.1% +105.5% 33% 33% +12.3%
≤90d 9 +127.1% +105.5% 33% 33% +12.3%
all 9 +127.1% +105.5% 33% 33% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +105.5% 33% +12.3%
10% +85.8% 33% +1.5%
15% +67.9% 22% -8.3%
20% +51.4% 22% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +127% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$10 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage18d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $42 $32 −$10 (-25%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $26 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $35 $22 −$13 (-37%)
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 26 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -62%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$8 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 +$66 +1290%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 48¢ $26 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 20h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $43 22h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 20¢ $11 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 5d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 5d
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 9d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 9d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $2 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 14d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 14d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 14d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 14d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 15d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 61¢ $10 15d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 18d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 18d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.37 · official $91.40 (match) · 31 history records