Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:25:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82b5…0085 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$187 (-30%) realized −$189 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%10W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$40
14 days−$65
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$103
tech 2% +$20
economics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-33.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -16.5% -24.5% 27% 27% -17.4%
≤30d 42 -26.5% -33.5% 24% 24% -25.4%
≤90d 42 -26.5% -33.5% 24% 24% -25.4%
all 42 -26.5% -33.5% 24% 24% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.5% 24% -25.4%
10% -39.8% 24% -32.5%
15% -45.7% 24% -39.1%
20% -51.0% 24% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$11 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses10 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage18d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Up 46¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$72 +339%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$29 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$23 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$42 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $30 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$41 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $42 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 26 $32 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 25 $16 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 25 $10 +$20 +190%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 08 $16 −$15 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $9 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $39 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $44 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.74 · official $14.02 · 83 history records