Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:35:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
82 0x82b4…57bc crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate25%16W / 49L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$2
sports 2% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 44% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 46 +7.8% -2.5% 24% 7% -9.5%
all 65 +11.4% +0.8% 25% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 9% -9.5%
10% -8.9% 9% -18.2%
15% -17.7% 9% -26.1%
20% -25.7% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×6.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses16 / 49
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage120d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $125 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $414 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? Jun 03 $414 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $414 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $414 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? May 31 $414 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $414 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $414 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $414 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? May 26 $414 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $414 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? May 24 $414 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 21 $414 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $415 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $415 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 18 $415 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 8? May 08 $415 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 05 $416 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $416 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on April 22? Apr 22 $416 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 on April 20? Apr 21 $416 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 19? Apr 19 $416 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on April 16? Apr 17 $416 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,650 on April 15? Apr 16 $416 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 15? Apr 15 $416 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on April 14? Apr 15 $416 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 14? Apr 14 $417 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks make the NHL Playoffs? Apr 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on April 13? Apr 14 $401 $0 -0%
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of Apr Apr 13 $2 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13? Apr 13 $400 $0 -0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season? Apr 13 $393 $0 -0%
Will Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) finish with the third-most seat Apr 12 $4 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Apr 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $418 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 10? Apr 10 $419 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $419 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 2? Apr 02 $419 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $419 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $419 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $419 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $419 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 29? Mar 29 $419 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28? Mar 28 $419 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $419 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 26? Mar 27 $419 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? SELL Yes 100¢ $415 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 25d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 31d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $414 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $414 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.34 · official $0.00 · 133 history records