Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T21:26:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82b3…e872 sports 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$28 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate91%99W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 25% −$27
tech 21% +$24
politics 12% −$6
other 11% −$1
finance 8% +$8
world 8% +$2
sports 8% +$24
culture 6% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +9.3% -1.1% 100% 50% -3.2%
≤30d 7 +7.4% -2.8% 100% 29% -6.2%
≤90d 27 -4.0% -13.1% 89% 22% -5.9%
all 109 -1.5% -10.9% 91% 26% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 26% -8.9%
10% -19.4% 10% -17.7%
15% -27.2% 1% -25.6%
20% -34.3% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses99 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)109 / 114
History coverage191d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $162 $169 +$7 (+4%)
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $69 $68 −$1 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 97¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+3%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 85¢ 99¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $50 +$2 +5%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 09 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 09 $11 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 02 $69 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 02 $112 +$4 +3%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $93 +$20 +22%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $24 +$1 +2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 12 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 10 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $33 +$1 +2%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $1 $0 +20%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti May 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 23 $19 +$2 +10%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 15 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-31? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Afghanistan in March? Apr 05 $5 $0 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $50 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 05 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 05 $105 +$9 +8%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representa Mar 31 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th Mar 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Liberal Alliance win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th Mar 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $94 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 4? Mar 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Mar 12 $3 $0 +15%
T20 World Cup: India vs New Zealand Mar 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will PCC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will PLC win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election? Mar 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on March 6? Mar 08 $151 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 5, 2026? Mar 06 $100 +$1 +1%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 04 $1 $0 +31%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 04 $1 $0 +33%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 04 $3 +$1 +35%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 04 $10 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $264 +$4 +2%
Howard Bison vs. Delaware State Hornets Feb 23 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Voicemails for Isabelle" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $69 1h
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $50 11d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 11d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 88¢ $15 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? BUY No 96¢ $162 26d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? BUY No 97¢ $24 26d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $53 39d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $36 39d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 96¢ $23 39d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 42d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 87¢ $22 47d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 73¢ $12 49d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 81¢ $34 54d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? BUY No 97¢ $33 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $12 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $57 57d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $14 58d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY No 92¢ $10 58d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY No 92¢ $5 58d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $24 58d
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United BUY Yes 95¢ $11 66d
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti BUY Yes 98¢ $10 66d
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? BUY No 91¢ $19 74d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes 57¢ $3 74d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 79¢ $16 80d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 85¢ $10 84d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $31 84d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 95¢ $21 84d
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $49 84d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $100 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.54 · official $287.54 (match) · 244 history records