Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82b2…bdc4 other 379 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$255 (-4%) realized −$252 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate35%133W / 244L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$76
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$32
sports 27% −$80
crypto 24% −$170
politics 5% −$82
world 1% −$41
economics 0% −$6
culture 0% −$4
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -69.1% -72.1% 18% 18% -58.2%
≤30d 13 +10.0% -0.4% 31% 31% +37.2%
≤90d 13 +10.0% -0.4% 31% 31% +37.2%
all 377 -7.7% -16.5% 35% 31% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 31% -15.0%
10% -24.5% 30% -23.2%
15% -31.8% 28% -30.6%
20% -38.5% 26% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$12 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$252
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses133 / 244
Open positions2
Markets (closed)377 / 379
History coverage156d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $46 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$7 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $37 −$30 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $58 +$5 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $20 +$157 +783%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Levante UD vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? Feb 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Feb 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a dra Feb 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Feb 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $30 +$56 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Feb 15 $13 +$7 +54%
Will Feyenoord Rotterdam win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $15 +$20 +134%
Will Go Ahead Eagles win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Feb 15 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 15 $10 +$3 +34%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $25 +$17 +68%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $16 −$9 -58%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Navy Midshipmen vs. Colgate Raiders Feb 14 $1 +$1 +153%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? Feb 14 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Feb 14 $5 +$21 +428%
Will Getafe CF vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Getafe CF vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 Feb 14 $19 +$20 +103%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-02-15? Feb 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-02-15? Feb 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Women's Quarterfinals - Canada vs. Germany Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Italy Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Salford City FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $7 +$4 +55%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Feb 14 $33 +$49 +149%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $16 +$21 +132%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $53 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $15 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $57 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.31 · official $10.31 (match) · 1037 history records