Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:12:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

82
0x82b2…45d7
sports · 69 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$337 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$365 · open −$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$189
Realized+$365
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 36
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage74d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 2 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days+$378
14 days+$335
30 days+$484
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $180 $140 −$40 (-22%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $38 $50 +$12 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$19 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$20 +70%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$53 +106%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $42 +$58 +139%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $110 +$84 +76%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $28 +$65 +228%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $27 +$23 +86%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $76 +$191 +252%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $57 +$42 +73%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $173 +$187 +108%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $85 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $170 +$130 +77%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $114 −$87 -77%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $134 +$57 +42%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $76 −$76 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $182 −$182 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $46 +$78 +171%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $45 −$45 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $15 −$15 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $90 +$81 +90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $19 +$9 +48%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $45 +$53 +117%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $55 +$42 +77%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $35 +$41 +119%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $20 +$19 +96%
Poland vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $3 +$2 +97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $10 +$2 +18%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $16 +$43 +276%
Casper Ruud vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 29 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $10 $0 -2%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $83 +$114 +137%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 28 $20 +$9 +46%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $121 +$60 +50%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a dra May 03 $47 +$39 +83%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $50 +$48 +95%
Will Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? May 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $34 −$34 -100%
FC Volendam vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 2.5 May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 80% +$508
crypto 8% −$110
world 7% −$66
other 4% −$34
politics 1% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $8 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $9 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $8 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $7 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 54¢ $15 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $9 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $12 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $3 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 59¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 58¢ $29 10h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 41¢ $42 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $50 15h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $9 15h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $6 15h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 47¢ $23 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 48¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $39 36h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $16 36h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 32¢ $32 36h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 56¢ $55 36h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $16 37h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 48¢ $31 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $34 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 30¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +22.5% +10.9% 56% 56% +25.2%
≤30d 45 +19.6% +8.2% 56% 56% +7.7%
≤90d 67 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 46% +1.1%
all 67 +3.5% -6.4% 46% 46% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 46% +1.1%
10% -15.3% 42% -8.6%
15% -23.5% 40% -17.4%
20% -31.0% 34% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.39 · official $189.39 (match) · 241 history records