Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82b1…9716 crypto 1245 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$178 (-1%) realized −$138 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate85%1060W / 185L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day19.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$24
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$141
sports 0% +$1
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.2% -8.4% 93% 27% -6.5%
≤30d 241 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 32% -6.7%
≤90d 1221 -1.9% -11.2% 85% 32% -10.6%
all 1245 -1.9% -11.3% 85% 31% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 31% -10.4%
10% -19.8% 16% -19.0%
15% -27.5% 8% -26.8%
20% -34.6% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$138
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1060 / 185
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1245 / 1245
History coverage98d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1245 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $28 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $28 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records