Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
82 0x82ae…2890 crypto 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (145 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$26,327 (-115%) realized −$26,313 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -72% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -79% what you keep after slip
Net edge-79%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate13%83W / 558L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day144.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$953
world 5% −$9
politics 5% −$18
other 3% +$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% +$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (145 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-74.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 472 -95.4% -95.8% 1% 0% -97.2%
≤30d 641 -72.3% -74.9% 13% 4% -72.5%
≤90d 641 -72.3% -74.9% 13% 4% -72.5%
all 641 -72.3% -74.9% 13% 4% -72.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -74.9% 4% -72.5%
10% ← realistic here -77.3% 1% -75.2%
15% -79.5% 0% -77.6%
20% -81.5% 0% -79.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -137% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -72% · $-wt -137% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -45% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$161 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$1,599
Realized−$26,313
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses83 / 558
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions44
Markets (closed)641 / 235
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day144.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 44 History 641 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 88¢ 86¢ $67 $66 −$1 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 88¢ $58 $57 −$2 (-3%)
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? No 86¢ 86¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 88¢ $54 $54 +$0 (+1%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 84¢ 83¢ $46 $46 −$1 (-1%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? No 82¢ 78¢ $48 $46 −$3 (-5%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 82¢ 80¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-2%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $44 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 83¢ 84¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 85¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 76¢ 66¢ $43 $37 −$6 (-14%)
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? No 63¢ 62¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-2%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 456 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $23 −$47 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 25 $231 −$465 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $34 −$69 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $96 −$192 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$26 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $292 −$587 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$124 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $128 −$257 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $213 −$429 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$16 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $333 −$670 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$30 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $153 −$308 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $221 −$445 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $45 −$90 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$41 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $282 −$568 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $40 −$80 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$6 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$55 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 25 $419 −$842 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 −$41 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $631 −$1,269 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $54 −$109 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$4 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $206 −$415 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $272 −$547 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $348 −$699 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$50 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $290 −$585 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$50 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $321 −$648 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$12 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $78 −$157 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $293 −$590 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 25 $127 −$256 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $70 −$141 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$213 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$96 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $133 −$267 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $428 −$862 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$29 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $211 −$423 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $355 −$714 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $89 −$89 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $75 −$151 -201%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $364 −$733 -201%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 21m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $6 22m
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election? BUY Yes 91¢ $56 27m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $38 52m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $17 54m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $1 54m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $3 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $4 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 29¢ $6 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 29¢ $3 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele BUY No 30¢ $10 1h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL No 30¢ $14 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $10 1h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? BUY Yes 92¢ $40 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $46 2h
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 2h
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $7 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 2h
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $37 2h
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $42 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $8 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 66¢ $17 3h
Will the Republican Party win the WA-04 House seat? BUY Yes 86¢ $33 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $21 3h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 SELL No 66¢ $12 3h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $3 3h
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? BUY No 86¢ $5 3h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 84¢ $44 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,598.63 · official $1,597.44 (match) · 3500 history records